In recent days, SpaceX’s Starlink announced partnerships with two of India’s leading telecom giants, Airtel and Jio, to provide broadband internet services to even the most remote and rural regions of the country. This marks a significant step as Starlink seems poised to finally break into the Indian internet market, the second largest in the world after China, probably helped by the recent partnership and good relations between the US and Indian administrations…
With over 2 billion people globally lacking reliable internet connectivity due to insufficient infrastructure, Starlink, which currently boasts nearly 5 million subscribers, is well-positioned to tap into a vast customer base in India. This will likely sustain and potentially accelerate its growth trajectory. SpaceX, which is estimated to have delivered 50% growth in 2024 to $15 billion revenue (with Starlink accounting for roughly 60% of that) is then on track to maintain growth around 40-50% over the next couple of years, suggesting its revenue could exceed $30 billion by 2026.
Looking beyond the short term, the developments in India, coupled with recent initiatives in the US, indicate that Starlink could evolve into a fully-fledged global telecom operator, directly competing with established local carriers. In the US, telecom companies such as AT&T and T-Mobile, along with handset manufacturers like Apple, are integrating satellite connectivity into mobile phones to enhance coverage in remote areas, such as mountainous regions. Notably, Starlink has already partnered with T-Mobile to offer satellite connectivity to the carrier’s subscribers, while AT&T is testing AST SpaceMobile’s technology.
Given Elon Musk’s ambitions, it’s unlikely that Starlink will limit itself to offering emergency or remote-area connectivity. In our view, the company will seek to tap into the broader connectivity market, which represents a massive and strategic opportunity, when Starlink’s satellite fleet becomes capable of handling coverage in more densely populated regions.
Such a move, probably years away, would turn today’s partners (SpaceX and telecom operators) into foes and would massively disrupt the telecom market (and networking equipment), with SpaceX’s Starlink potentially becoming the first truly global telecom operator.
