The U.S. has taken another significant step in extending its technological decoupling from China, this time targeting the rapidly emerging humanoid robotics industry. The Trump administration recently announced restrictions on the import of new foreign-made humanoid and quadruped robots, citing national security concerns and reinforcing its broader strategy of securing the entire AI hardware ecosystem.
Because these robots incorporate WiFi, Bluetooth or cellular connectivity, they require authorization from the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) before they can be imported, marketed or sold in the U.S. The administration justified the decision by arguing that increasingly sophisticated robotic systems collect vast amounts of data that could potentially be exploited by foreign intelligence services or even remotely commandeered by malicious actors.
The executive action effectively achieves many of the objectives originally envisioned under the bipartisan GUARD Act, which has gained momentum in Congress following the inclusion of a key provision requiring national security reviews of robotic systems originating from countries of concern. Rather than waiting for new legislation, the administration opted to act immediately using existing FCC authority.
Although the regulation formally targets only finished humanoid and quadruped robots, its implications extend well beyond the final product. The FCC defines a “foreign-produced” robot according to existing Buy American standards, meaning that a robot must be assembled in the U.S. with approximately 65% domestic content by value to qualify as a domestic product. As a result, even robots assembled in the U.S. could be excluded if they rely heavily on Chinese actuators, motors or other high-value subsystems.
For U.S. humanoid manufacturers, the restrictions provide a meaningful competitive advantage by limiting access to what have become the world’s lowest-cost humanoid robots, many of which are available for only a few thousand or tens of thousands of dollars. Chinese companies, particularly Unitree, have emerged as global leaders in affordable humanoid platforms and today supply a large proportion of research laboratories worldwide. By restricting these products from entering the U.S. market, domestic manufacturers such as Tesla, Figure AI, Agility Robotics and Boston Dynamics (owned by Hyundai Motors) gain additional time to scale production without facing immediate price competition from Chinese rivals.
Tesla appears particularly well positioned to benefit from this evolving regulatory landscape. As Optimus moves closer to commercialization, the company combines a strong domestic manufacturing footprint with leadership in artificial intelligence, battery technology, manufacturing automation and computing infrastructure, giving it a differentiated competitive position in an increasingly protected U.S. market.
However, shielding domestic manufacturers from Chinese competition does not eliminate the industry’s deep dependence on Chinese supply chains. U.S. robot manufacturers remain heavily reliant on China for critical components, particularly rare-earth magnets and actuator subsystems, which together can account for well over 50% of a humanoid robot’s value. While the regulation does not directly restrict imports of standalone components, it significantly increases the incentive for manufacturers to localize their supply chains if they wish to secure long-term access to the U.S. market.
Overall, while the regulation should be supportive for domestic humanoid manufacturers in the short term by reducing competitive pressure, we believe the longer-term impact is more nuanced. Building alternative supply chains is likely to increase hardware costs and could partially offset the benefits of reduced competition. In addition, the risk of Chinese retaliation should not be underestimated. China’s overwhelming dominance in rare-earth processing—representing more than 90% of global supply—remains a critical strategic vulnerability, and Beijing has repeatedly demonstrated its willingness to respond to U.S. technology restrictions through export controls on critical minerals and other dual-use technologies.
Ultimately, we believe the biggest beneficiaries of this policy may not be the humanoid robot manufacturers themselves, but rather the non-Chinese suppliers of high-value robotics components and subsystems. As U.S. manufacturers increasingly seek to build trusted and localized supply chains, leading component suppliers in the U.S., Japan and South Korea should see growing opportunities. Japanese companies such as Harmonic Drive Systems, Nabtesco and Yaskawa Electric, alongside Korean players including Samsung Electro-Mechanics, possess decades of expertise in precision motion control, gear reducers, sensors, bearings and other mission-critical robotics technologies. Regardless of which humanoid manufacturers ultimately emerge as industry leaders, these “picks-and-shovels” suppliers appear well positioned to benefit from the long-term expansion of the humanoid market.
